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Prediction for CME (2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-16T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19461/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T05:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version:
Resolution:
Ambient settings:
WSA version:

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg): 27
Latitude (deg): 26
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes: 

See prediction details from NOAA SWPC Forecast Discussion excerpts below:

###
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 17 0030 UTC
...
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
...
A 10 deg long filament, centered at approximately N26E27, disappeared -
beginning at about 16/1230 UTC. This eruptive DSF was observed in
GOES/SUVI imagery and was associated with a CME first clearly noted in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1336 UTC. Initial analysis of all current
available imagery indicated a CME most likely directed towards the
STEREO-A spacecraft (a little over 2 1/2 days behind Earth's orbital
location), however, the breadth of the CME suggests an Earth-directed
component may be possible as early as late 19 Mar



###
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2022 Mar 17 1230 UTC
...
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
...
The filament eruption centered near N26E27 at approximately 16/1230 UTC from the previous
discussion was modeled and determined to be a likely glancing blow to
the east with a bulk of the material heading for STEREO-A.

Lead Time: 71.50 hour(s)
Difference: 15.95 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2022-03-16T21:27Z

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